| Oct 27, 2014


Now that the polls are closed and the results are yet to come in, I can share my predictions with readers. You can compare them to the results in a few minutes. I'll explain my thinking on the mayors/reeves positions.

ADDINGTON HIGHLANDS

I expect Reeve Hogg to be returned easily. He has been in the job a long time and while people don't love the municipal council there is no upheaval in sight. Gerald Bray has no track record on council or in the community, and it would be a shock if he defeated Henry Hogg.

As far as ward 1 (Denbigh) is concerned, Tony Fritsch will likely be returned, and for the vacant seat I really have no idea, but I will predict Alice Madigan will win, mainly because of the role she played in opposing the cuts to hours of the Denbigh ambulance service.

NORTH FRONTENAC

I predict Ron Higgins will be the new mayor of North Frontenac, comfortably ahead of Claudio Valentini. He has a higher profile with the cottage associations and the township itself, and since he has not been on council before, has no constituency opposing him.

Claudio Valentini has run as a more oppositional figure, and there may be some negative impact on voters from his purchasing .ca domain names that are identical to the names of other candidates and directing traffic to his own website.

The wild card in the mayor's race, as well as the council races in wards 2 and 3, is the alliance that had been forged between Valentini and candidates Vernon Hermer (ward 2) and Denis Bedard (ward 3). That could help solidify the votes of those opposed to the direction of the current council for all three candidates. The question is: how many voters, apart from the vocal opponents of the township's handling of the Ompah fire hall issue, does that amount to?

Ward 1 (Barrie) is a three-way race between incumbents. I see Fred Perry winning his seat and a closer battle between Lonnie Watkins and Wayne Good, with Good hanging on to his spot. I think that while you can run in any ward you want to for municipal council as long as you live in the township, people tend to vote against those who run outside of where they live, as Watkins has.

I could be wrong on this one, however.

Ward 2 I see going to Gerry Martin and Betty Hunter. This is based mostly on an expectation that the Valentini alliance will have at best a neutral effect. Those who are attracted by it will be counterbalanced by those who are repelled by it, and in the end Martin and Hunter are known quantities. Hunter is running in a different ward than last time, but she has represented ward 2 and lives in the ward. Although it is generally accepted she is running in ward 2 because she has faced vocal opposition in ward 1, I don't think she will be penalized that much for it. And she has worked very hard on council for many years.

That leaves ward 3, the hardest to predict. I expect John Inglis to be re-elected, although maybe with less support. The wild card in this race is Denis Bedard. He is well known through the fire department and the charity ATV runs and will be supported by all those opposed to the township's handling of the Ompah fire hall and those who fear there is a hidden agenda against the continued existence of township halls.

Fred Fowler has a much lower profile, and lives at the quiet end of the ward, on the border with Lanark Highlands. This might turn into a race between two population centres, Snow Road/Mississippi and Ompah. It is also a very low population constituency, so a small vote swing can make a big difference. I call Fowler to win, and a shut out for the alliance, but I think this is the shakiest call of all I have made in North Frontenac.

CENTRAL FRONTENAC

The mayor's race I give to Frances Smith, for two reasons. She is well known, locally born and raised and is a former reeve of one of the constituent townships. That's reason 1. The second reason is that Janet Gutowski has been the mayor for eight years, long enough for voters to be seeking a change. Some of the controversy over her county role, and the warden situation of two years ago, may harm her as well, although I think that is a minor factor, at most. County politics are not top of mind for most voters in Central Frontenac. Roads are, and the perception is they are not as well maintained as people would like.

Ward 1 (Kennebec) I call incumbents Dewey and Matson.

Ward 2 (Olden) I call John Purdon and Jamie Riddell

Ward 3 (Oso) I call Bill MacDonald and a toss up between Wayne Millar and Sherry Whan.

Ward 4 (Hinchinbrooke) I call Heather Fox and Phillip Smith.

These predictions range from confident (Dewey, Matson, Purdon and MacDonald) , shaky (Riddell and Fox) and not much more than a wild guess (Smith and Millar).

Hinchinbrooke ward is known for sending incumbents packing and is split between two population centres. The only constant has been Bill Snyder, and where his support goes is a mystery, so I really have no idea. Sharon Shepherd may garner some of Snyder's support. Bill Lowery is a roads guy and he is related to half the township, and Brent Cameron talks more like a politician than any other of the candidates (he was a candidate for provincial nomination) so anyone can win or lose in Hinchinbrooke.

In Oso, I really only expect that the two councillors will include Millar, Whan and MacDonald, but which two I can't really say.

In Olden, after Purdon I really don't know who the second councillor will likely be.

I'm confident with my picks in Kennebec.

SOUTH FRONTENAC

I'd like to say pick 'em as far as the mayor's race is concerned. It might not be that close in the end, but no one seems to know who will win. I'm going to say McPhail over Vandewal. The reason is that even though Ron Vandewal is a lifelong resident from a family steeped in local politics, he has a reputation for being hot-headed and has made some enemies over the years.

It is also interesting to look at the ideological background of the two candidates, Vandewal is at least a small c conservative, and McPhail a former provincial candidate for the NDP. That might tip the balance towards Vandewal, but I think people feel comfortable that either candidate is acceptable and I tip it to McPhail.

Portland District will likely stay the same – McDougall is popular after serving one term, and Bill Robinson has been on Council for a very long time. Possible upset here, - Barbeau over Robinson, but I'd only give that a 25% chance.

Loughborough is a wild card. Six candidates, no incumbents.

I call Ross Sutherland and Mark Schjerning but here again it is little more than a guess.

TRUSTEE – South Frontenac Suzanne Ruttan, comfortably.

Lynda Hawn is not well known and has not been in the township for very long.

Lindsay Davidson, who has spiced up the race considerably, will lose for two reasons. First, she ran a negative campaign, essentially running against the school board, and, more importantly, she is from Kingston.

CENTRAL AND NORTH FRONTENAC TRUSTEE – I give this one to Karen McGregor. All three candidates acquitted themselves very well and are all well qualified for the post, but McGregor is local, well known, and under her direction the St. Lawrence College Employment Centre in Sharbot Lake has quickly become a force in the region.

She may be rewarded for that tonight.

CATHOLIC TRUSTEE – I call Wendy Procter over Jody Cameron, for no other reason than she is the incumbent.

There you have it.

I might have a high percentage right, but if you remove the one bit of logic, incumbents tend to be re-elected, these are not much more than guesses. In the paper this week I will look at the stats coming from Frontenacnews.ca. Our website captures the number of hits each of the candidate profiles receives, and in some ward and mayor races, there is a large discrepancy in web hits between candidates. Even though our web traffic skews towards seasonal as opposed to permanent residents, who receive the physical newspaper, I will look for correlations between web profile hits and votes.

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