There is a sucker born every day

Jeff Green | Oct 02, 2024

Every once in a while, there is a flurry of media attention when it takes a while for someone to purchase a winning ticket in a progressive lottery. That happened across Canada three weeks ago, when the Lotto Max jackpot reached $80 million, which is the highest it can get to. Lotto Max is run by the ILC (Interprovincial Lottery Commission) made up of five provincial lottery corporations across Canada. The ILC also runs Lotto 6/49 and the Daily Grand. The OLG, the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation runs all lotteries in Ontario, including all the terminals that we all know and love whether we buy lottery tickets or not, and that voice that says “Winner – Gagnant” whenever someone wins a few dollars or a free ticket.

Lotto Max was started up in 2009. The maximum Lotto Max jackpot was $50 million at the time, and it went up to $60 million in 2015, and $70 million in 2019. It was raised to $80 million just this month, keeping the buying power of the jackpot above the inflation rate again.

The $80 million prize happened for the first time only a few weeks after the increase, and in the end it was shared, which is sad in a way, because the two winners only took home $40 million each, which is less than $30 million in 2009 dollars, so it really wasn’t much of a win at all, not enough to buy even a small super yacht.

I don’t play lotteries, but I do know that the odds against a major win are very long. Like many on the fringe of the lottery world, I heard the buzz about the $80 million, and thought about buying a ticket – which is what the extra jackpot is all about, attracting the attention of those who do not normally play.

I wondered exactly how long the odds are. It turns out it is a 33 million to 1 shot . I would have to spend $83 million on different numbers to buy myself a 50% chance of that jackpot winning $80 million and taking a net loss of $3 million. That is only if I did not have to share the prize, which would bring my loss to $43 million.

Still, I almost bought a ticket. But when I realised that all I would be doing is paying $5 to the Ontario government, I remembered that I already pay them. They take income tax and they take sales tax, and that is enough for me.

Handing over more money, after tax dollars, for lottery tickets, is like paying extra tax. The people who play the lottery know all of this, but they are drawn by one single fact. They have a chance, slim as it is, to win. As the saying goes, “if you don’t play, you can’t win.”

I think governments should get out of lottery, and be honest about what they are doing, not because of the odds, or the people who spend $10 or $20 or $50 each week on lottery, but because of its role in fostering gambling addiction, which is a real problem for a small but significant number of people in our province, governments should lift us all up, and not push any of us down.

Even though I don’t play the lottery, I have voted in every election since I turned 18. It is partly out of a desire to participate in our democracy, partly as a habit. And for the past 17 years, ever since Frontenac County has been paired with Lanark County, the chances of my provincial or federal vote having any impact on the election outcome, has been 33 million to 0.

The last effort to make meaningful change to our electoral system to balance out the riding system with some mechanism to account for votes that are not cast for the winning candidate in safe ridings such as Frontenac, was abandoned in 2017, and neither the ruling Liberal Party, nor the governing party in waiting, the Conservative Party, are planning to do anything.

Not coincidentally, those two parties have traded power for the past 40 years. After ten years with one of them, we switch to the other.

Luckily, there are other mechanisms for democratic debate in this country, other than elections, although those are under siege as well.

But as far as my vote is concerned, I’d be better off saving the gas it takes to drive to the polls, to invest that money in a lottery ticket.