Credit is Due

In the past 6 weeks Donald Trump may have accomplished what the Paris Accord could not, a rapid transition away from fossil fuels. While it is hard to see any upside to the present cost of living crisis, and the threat of ever large conflicts, and possible invasion for Denmark, Cuba, and even Canada, the present oil shock will change the world’s economy. Similar to the oil shock when the gulf states unilaterally increased the price of oil in the 1970s, things changed rapidly and fast then and will now. 

After years of driving cars that had large block V8s that we called land yachts, our present love of SUVs and trucks will quickly drop as the prospect of $2 / l oil continues for possibly a decade. How cars like the Chevette and the Pinto suddenly sold record numbers, and they were not great cars (I owned one), cheap small vehicles, public transit, and carpooling will become not popular, but necessary. As natural gas, propane, and fuel oil similarly go up, alternatives like heat pumps will become more attractive. In addition, solar, wind and battery storage, as well as nuclear power plants will become the cheap source of power.

What has most probably occurred is the petroleum industry’s worst fear, demand extinction. Regardless of what happens to resolve the present conflict, any disgruntled group can spend about what it costs to buy a small EV on a drone and disrupt 20% of the oil supply for weeks. $50,000 is not a lot of money.

What Greenpeace, any Green Party, or David Suzuki tried to do, we may see happening today. All because of one man, Donald Trump.