What Will The Last 1000+ Days of Doug Ford's Government Look Like?
It seems like centuries ago that Justin Trudeau was the Prime Minister who had lost his grip on governing, but lingered in power for at least a couple of years longer.
He no longer had the confidence of the country, but managed to hang on to power because our system provided him with the levers to hang on. Even though Trudeau presided over a minority government, the NDP was even more unpopular than he was, and they propped his government until internal pressures within his party finally pushed him out.
Barely a year into his third majority election win, Doug Ford has sunk to 24% in the polls, which is a huge drop in a pretty short period of time, especially in light of the fact that his combative rhetoric about Donald Trump is in lock step with what most Ontarians think.
Scandals that have been brewing since his election in 2018 have caught to the Ford government, with the recent revelations about ministers spending public money on lavish lifestyle choices only making matters worse. And he has been in power for 8 years now, which is kind of a de-facto best before date for provincial and federal leaders across Canada.
This reject of the Ford brand is happening as the transformational nature of the Ford governing policies are just starting to have their full effect across the province.
In rural Ontario, the transformation of Conservation Authorities from community-based organisations with a regulatory function as well as a stewardship focus, are being replaced by provincially controlled agencies with extremely limited local input and a diminished mandate.
This model has already been implemented in the public health sphere in our region with the creation of the South East Public Health (SEPH), and the results of that exercise are already being revealed
The SEPH merger of three smaller Public Health Units is only 18 months old, but already there has been a narrowing of services, cuts in regional ties and a diminished connection to local communities.
The Ford government's goal for Conservation Authorities is even more transparent than it is in the health sector, and it relates to the over-riding focus for Doug Ford as a politician.
For decades Conservation Authorities have been seen by the Ontario Conservative Party as hotbeds of tree hugging red tape, slowing housing development in rural and near urban Ontario. As has been pointed out repeatedly, the existing agencies have all streamlined their reporting for land use development applications in recent years. While their work may end up stopping some development, for legitimate environmental reasons, they are not the reason it takes so long to build in Ontario.
When it comes to municipal politics, the impact of provincial meddling is about to increase.
Strong Mayor policies were implemented in the middle of this current municipal mandate, which is itself an indication of a lack of concern on the part of the province for municipal politicians. The province could have easily delayed implementation until this fall, to let the current councils complete their term, allowing local voters make the decision about who to elect as their first strong mayor.
Strong Mayor powers, as well as tightening rules about asset management, are designed to create more flexibility to impose provincial policies onto local governance. In addition to providing a regulatory framework, through the provincial policy statement and the Municipal Act, the current government wants to see municipalities operate the way it operates under a Doug Ford majority. Decisions are made by the leader, and everyone else follows them.
Sooner or later, we will see how this plays out in our local councils.
The most direct impact of the Ford government style has been felt in the education sector, however. For decades, local school boards have seen their independence challenged, mainly through a funding formula imposed from above, but also through regulation. The gutting and potential elimination of local school boards will complete a transformation that has been over 100 years in the making.
In the early 19th century, communities in rural Ontario got together and built schools, and then hired teachers. This model had its limitations, but at that time local communities determined how their children were educated. The transformation to a provincially funded system has led to tremendous improvements in education over that time. Small communities such as those in Frontenac County could never fund a modern school system out of the local tax base, but what the Ford government is currently implementing will result in the complete elimination of regional influence over the way schools operate.
We reported last week that the Limestone Board decided to make a slight increase in staffing at Clarendon Central in Plevna, which is likely the smallest school under their jurisdiction, after being petitioned by the parent council as well as North Frontenac Council. It isn't much, but once school boards are eliminated, there will be no local input on staffing or anything else.
It is a small example, but the role of schools in our communities has diminished over the decades, with some exceptions, and that will only be more pronounced under direct supervision by the province.
The Mike Harris government was voted out of office in 2004, but the impacts of those policies have reverberated in rural Ontario ever since.
The Doug Ford government could linger in office for close to four more years, even if its popularity sinks to single digits. Just as Ford engineered an election last year to capitalise on his fleeting popularity, he is capable of delaying the next election for up to 5 years after the last one. This is a change brought in by his own government, eliminating legislated fixed election dates every four years.
Doug Ford is probably more popular in the rest of Canada right now than he is in Ontario, so he may not have to face the Ontario electorate again in his current role anyway.
This government will eventually be replaced, however.
The centralisation of control over public health, education, land use policies, conservation, municipal governance and other areas, will last a lot longer than the current government
In fact, there is no going back once the province eliminates local jurisdiction.
That's another lesson from the Mike Harris government.
