Does Michelle Foxton Have A Chance to Beat Scott Reid?

Jeff Green | Apr 09, 2025

Does Michelle Foxton Have A Chance to Beat Scott Reid on April 28?

Looking at the local election by the numbers, using previous elections as a baseline, and then taking into account the undeniable drift of Green and NDP voters to the Liberal Party, the potential for the gap between the support for Conservative MP Scott Reid and Liberal Michelle Foxton, to narrow considerably, is likely to play out on April 28.

But for her to have a real chance to win will require some doing. In the 2021 federal election, Scott Reid received 48.9% of the vote and Michelle Foxton, 26.4%. The breakdown of the vote in Ontario as a whole in 2021 was 39.3% for the Liberals and 34.9% for the Conservatives. This riding is therefore significantly more supportive of the Conservative Party than the rest of the province, about 40% higher. Some polls suggest the Liberals could see their Ontario vote run up as high as 50%, but they show Conservative support is steady, at least at the same 35% level that it was at in 2021. A safe Conservative seat like Lanark-Frontenac remains a safe seat in that scenario, even at the high end of Liberal polling in Ontario, three weeks before election day. 

In that 2021 election, the Green Party (2.6%) and the NDP Party (15.6%) attracted about 18% of the vote between them, and given the dynamics of this race. both locally and nationally, Michelle Foxton could well capture a lot of those votes, bringing her total to over 40%.

On the other hand, the People's Party received 6% of the vote in Lanark-Frontenac Kingston in 2021, and their candidate did not get registered in time this time around, and those voters are likely headed to Scott Reid. Scott Reid has about 55% of the votes available and Michelle Foxton has 45% available, and that is not enough for her.

The only way for her to win, is to convince Conservative voters from 2021 to vote Liberal in 2025. A few months ago that would have been impossible, given how unpopular the Liberal Party was.

But the tariffs, and other actions of the current US government, has changed everything about this campaign, and as a local candidate, Michelle Foxton has a federal campaign that gives her some ability to address some Conservative voters, and that is her task.

Two hundred people came out to her campaign launch at the Perth Lions Hall last week, including Dr. Marlene Spruyt, who was the Green Party candidate in the recent provincial election. Not only was the hall full and enthusiastic, it contained Dr. Alan Drummond and Smith Falls Mayor Shawn Panko, both Foxton supporters in this campaign, who are both coming from the right.

In a recent poll 5% of Canadians said their vote was based on how much they like a local candidate, instead of the party, or the leader, and Michelle Foxton needs to convince those voters that her energy and commitment to the needs of Lanark-Frontenac residents is worth supporting. 

And the other thing Foxton is willing, and already has done, is to attack Scott Reid’s political record. She points to his 24 uninterrupted years as an MP, and says he has been in the job too long. She points to the role he has taken on with Giant Tiger in recent years, as Board Chair, and calls him a part-time MP.

It is not clear that these accusations will make a difference when people go to vote, but they are based on an understanding that for a Liberal to win Lanark-Frontenac, unlike the rest of the country, it is not sufficient to consolidate the progressive vote. Conservative voters, long time conservative voters, need to change their vote from Blue to Red.

It remains to be seen if that can happen in Lanark-Frontenac.