South Frontenac gains more people than the City of Kingston, census shows

Jeff Green | Feb 08, 2017

One of the initial insights that analysts looking at the 2016 census data that was released this week was that urban areas are seeing population growth and rural areas are seeing a decline. But the fastest growing areas are not the downtown cores or suburban areas in major cities, but the communities that are located further out in the countryside,

While Kingston is very small by urban standards (too small to be properly considered an urban area), and it saw paltry growth between 2011 and 2016 (0.4%), the pattern of greater growth in the surrounding region did hold true. Not only did South Frontenac do better in percentage terms, (2.9% as compared to the 0.4% for Kingston) in people terms it even out-flanked the City. There are 533 more South Frontenac residents than there were in 2011, and only 435 more residents in the City of Kingston.

Loyalist Township, which encroaches on the western edge of urban Kingston, saw more growth yet. 4.6% in percentage terms, 756 more people.

The permanent resident population in South Frontenac is 18,646, up from 18,113.

As a whole, Frontenac County saw an increase of only 1.1%, 287 people, because of population declines in Central Frontenac and Frontenac Islands and very modest growth in North Frontenac

In Central Frontenac the population has dropped by 183 to 4,373 in 2016 from 4,556 in 2011 (-4%).

North Frontenac is up by 41 , (+2.2%) from 1,857 in 2011 to 1,898 in 2016.

In Frontenac Islands the population has dropped by 104 to 1,760 from 1,864 in 2011 (-5.6%)

Kingston and Frontenac County are pared together as census division, and in that division the population is up by 0.5%, an increase of 722 souls.

Addington Highlands saw a decline in population as well. There were 2,373 permanent residents on census day in 2016, down from 2,516 in 2011 (-7.7%).

Over in Lanark County Tay Valley has seen a small increase, at 5,665 as compared to 5,571 in 2011 (+1.7%) and Lanark Highlands is up by more, to 5,338 from 5,128 (+4.1%). Lanark County as a whole saw a healthy increase of 4.6%, mostly from increases in population for areas within the Ottawa nexus. The town of Perth saw an increase of only 90 people (1.5%) and Smiths Falls saw a decline (-2.2%), but Carleton Place is up by 9%, well above the national average.

The information in the census report will be used by municipalities as they plan for the future. The results, except perhaps in North Frontenac, are not surprising. Even in North Frontenac the numbers are so small that they would be highly influenced by any error either in the 2011 or 2016 count and might not indicate a trend of any kind.

South Frontenac has been concerned in recent years with managing growth and the other Frontenac Townships and Addington Highlands have been trying to retain the existing population and encourage growth where possible. On the whole, the census numbers indicate those concerns will still be with us over the next 5-10 years.

As a whole, the region is not growing at anywhere near the national average of 5%.

Hastings County is up by same percentage as Frontenac County, 1.1%, and Lennox and Addington is up by 2.6%.