Un-vaccinated population twice as contagious, studies suggest

Jeff Green | Oct 13, 2021

When COVID-19 vaccinations were being studied for approval, two major criteria were considered, are they safe and are they effective.

Effectiveness is determined by the degree to which they protect those who receive the vaccination.

But one thing that is not studied, at least in the initial stages, is whether vaccinated people are less contagious than vaccinated people.

The vaccines were shown to be affective at preventing the virus from gaining a foothold and producing an illness in those who are vaccinated, but whether the virus is able to use an inhospitable host as a conduit to get to a new host is not that well studied.

According to Dr. Hugh Guan of Kingston Frontenac Lennox and Addington Public Health (KFLAPH) a large study in the United Kingdom of health workers and their families has provided a preliminary answer.

The study looked at the households of vaccinated and unvaccinated health care workers, and found that more household members of unvaccinated workers developed COVID as compared the household members of vaccinated workers.

“There are other factors, but the study was a pretty big one, and it showed that the unvaccinated population is more contagious,” said Guan, “it is about a 2-1 ratio. This becomes important on a population basis.”

Among sensitive professions in Ontario, including healthcare workers, a vaccine mandate is coming into force this month in order to protect the vulnerable population from an increased risk of transmission.

Case count in KFLAPH continues to drop

KFLAPH would be back in the Green Zone at the beginning of this week, if the old COVID colour coded system were still in place. The total case count is 26 for the region, and the case rate per 100,000 over the last 7 days had dropped to 6.1. The positive testing had dropped to 0.33%. And there was another piece of good news. One patient, who had been in the ICU in the days preceding the Thanksgiving weekend, has left hospital. There were no patients in hospital in the region, as of October 10. 6 people have died of COVID in KFLAPH since the onset of the pandemic began, none since early July.

Vaccine rate increase has slowed.

The first dose vaccination rate in KFLAPH is now within 2 percentage points of the 90% target at 88.1%, and the fully vaccinated rate is up to 83.3% of the eligible population.

The rate per week has slowed to just under 900 first doses and over 1600 second doses. If that rate remains steady, 90% of the population will have their first dose by mid-November, and 90% will be fully vaccinated by the end of the year.