Details From Intellivote Reveal Nuances Of Voter Turnout In 2022 Election

Jeff Green | Nov 30, 2022

Aside from extending the voting period and making voting a click, click, submit process that is about as difficult as checking a bank balance online, electronic voting in municipal elections also makes it easy to collect detailed data about what groups are more or less likely to vote in different municipalities.

Because the municipalities in this region all use the same voting service, Intellivote, they receive the same detailed report along with the voting results.

And this data provides some answers to questions about voter turnout, which remains stubbornly low in the region. In spite of the ease of voting, and the fact that, at least in this year's election, there were contests for all council seats, and all but one head of council, in the region, the turnout remained stubbornly low, with about 2 of every 3 eligible voters deciding not to vote.

And the data paints a different picture in each of the municipalities.

In Addington Highlands, the turnout among full time residents was 49%, and the turnout among seasonal residents  was 26%.  In raw numbers however, more non-residents voted than residents, 781- 757. There are about 2 seasonal residents for ever full time resident in Addington Highlands

In terms of demographics, 2/3 of all eligible voters in Addington Highlands are between the ages of 50 and 80. The turnout among those three groups is higher as people get older. Only 27% of 50-60 year olds voted, and that goes up to 37% for 60-70 year olds, and 44.2% for those aged between 70 and 80.

The mix of voters in Addington Highlands ended up being beneficial to incumbents, as 5 of the 6 who sought reelection were successful. The only exception was the election of Ken Hook, over incumbent David Miles, in Ward 2, but Hook did sit as both councillor and reeve between 2001 and 2006.

In North Frontenac, the overall voting turnout was 34%, but among permanent residents the turnout was high, 55%. The turnout among non-resident electors, which represent more than 3/4 of the electorate, was only 28%. But the non-resident vote remained crucial to candidates seeking office, because in terms of raw numbers 62% of all ballots that were cast came from the non-resident population.

In North Frontenac, the population tracks in a similar manner as Addington Highlands. Over 70% of eligible voters are between 50 and 80 years old, and like in Addington Highlands, the turnout is lowest among those in their 50's (34%), higher among those in their 60's (39%), and highest among those in their 70s (46%).

The mix of voters this time in North Frontenac was not quite as kind to incumbents, as it was in Addington Highlands. Of 6 incumbents seeking election, 4 were re-elected and 2 were defeated by candidates who have never served on local council, including Gerry Lichty's win over former Mayor Ron Higgins.

In Central Frontenac, the participation rate in the election was 33.3%, about the same as North Frontenac and Addington Highlands, even though there was no race for mayor. The 4 district contests had crowded fields however, which kept the turnout from dropping too low.

In Central Frontenac, 45% of eligible voters are full time residents and 55% are seasonals, and the turnout among the resident population was 46%, whereas the turnout among seasonal residents was only 23%. In raw numbers, 1616 votes (61%) were cast by residents, and 1002 votes (38%) were cast by non-residents.

Among the 5 candidates who were elected in 2018 and ran again in 2022 in Central Frontenac, only 2 were re-elected. Change was afoot in the township, and full time residents apparently drove the change.

The demographic data in Central Frontenac is similar to the other townships. 64% of the population are between 50 and 80, and the participation rate was lower (30%) among those 50-60, higher (38%) for the 60-70 year olds, and highest (45.3%) among the 70-80 year old eligible voters.

In South Frontenac, the voting participation rate was 36%. There is a higher percentage of full time residents, 73% (to 27% seasonal residents) than in the townships to the north. The turnout among full time residents was 40%, and among the seasonal population it was half that at 21%. In terms of raw numbers, 5,344 votes (82%) were cast by permanent residents, and 1,132 (18%) were cast by seasonal residents.

The demographics in South Frontenac track a bit younger than in the other townships. 54% of the population is between 50 and 80 in South Frontenac, and there are almost as many 40-50 year olds, 2532, as there are 70-80 year olds, 2757. The likelihood of voting increases with age in South Frontenac in much the same way as it does in the other townships, however. 27% of those 40-50 voted, 34% of those 50-60, 44% of those who are 60-70, and 53% of those who are 70 to 80.

And in South Frontenac, the mix of voters was also very good to incumbents. All of the 6 incumbents seeking re-election, including Mayor Vandewal, were successfully returned to council. The three new members of council all won open seats.

Overall trends

In terms of overall trends within the region, it would seem that appealing to older voters who are full time residents is a good recipe for election, especially in South and Central Frontenac, and paying attention to concerns of older seasonal residents might pay dividends in North Frontenac and Addington Highlands.

The stats are also a dramatic illustration of the so-called aging Tsunami in this rural region. As these trends track out over 4 or 8 more years, the majority of voters in Frontenac County and Addington Highlands will be in their mid to late 60s or older by 2030.

(Note this article was edited from the version that appeared in the print edition, as there was an error in the first data set that Addington Highlands received from Intellivote)