Time to look differently at COVID numbers

Jeff Green | Dec 30, 2021

As the Omicron COVID wave sweeps through North America, residents in the Kingston Frontenac Lennox and Addington Public Health (KFLAPH) have been on the leading edge.

Led by cases in Kingston, which has about 60% of the population, the region was in the midst of a Delta COVID wave in late November which had brought the highest case loads and hospitalisation rates that it had seen throughout the entire pandemic. Then, the first Omicron case was identified on December 8.

The case was from late November and had taken 10 days to be identified as being the Omicron.

With Omicron now the dominant strain the region, the daily and weekly confirmed case rates are at historically high levels, at 469 cases per 100,000 people as of December 30, after 291 cases new cases were confirmed in one day. Among those were 20 in South Frontenac, 11 in Stone Mills Township, 3 in Central and 2 in North Frontenac.

But those numbers do not indicate the true number of cases in the region, which are undoubtedly higher, perhaps much, much, higher.

Dr. Piotr Oglaza, the Medical Officer of Health with KFLAPH, said in media call that “confirmed case numbers are no longer the key indicator that they were a year ago. We are looking more closely at hospitalisations, and ICU beds in use at this time.”

The contact tracing system, which was able to track the spread of cases when the virus was being contained in the region and the province, is not being used for the general population at this time. Earlier this month, Oglaza said that it was a better use of limited resources to focus KFLAPH efforts on working with community partners on the booster dose vaccination effort.

As well, the testing system, locally and provincially as well, is under stress. Although Dr. Oglaza said that lab capacity in KGL&A is sufficient, the main testing facility at Beechwood Drive in Kingston has been booked one week in advance since early December.

Other information on the KFLAPH COVID dash board bears this reality out. On December 30, over 89% of new cases from the previous day were listed as “info pending” on the case detail graph, with only 10% listed as coming from “close contact” and 1% from “travel”.

As well, the 7 day testing positivity rate has hit an all-time high of 12.2%, as the number tests administered remains steady at about 1,500 per day.

With 91 cases over the last 7 days, (500 per 100,000) the rate in South Frontenac remains the highest in the region except for the City of Kingston, which is 680 per 100,000 people. There have been 10 cases reported in Central Frontenac over the past week (210 per 100,000), 4 in North Frontenac (220 per 100,00) and 3 in Addington Highlands (140 per 100,000).

The cases continue to be concentrated in the 18-29 year old age group, but the numbers are increasing in older age groups now.

Dr. Oglaza said that most of the hospitalisations in the region were due to the lingering cases of the Delta variant, but that one of the most recent deaths was the result of the Omicron strain in an elderly patient.

There were a total 6 deaths in the region over the Christmas period, bringing the total through the 18 month pandemic to 22 (16 since mid-November)

14 people are currently in hospital, down from a peak of 28 about a week ago. 7 patients are receiving Intensive care for COVID in KFL&A, and 6 are breathing with the assistance of ventilators.

The booster shot campaign in the region has been proceeding at breakneck speed, with 20,000 receiving a shot over the last week. The total for boosters is now almost 83,000, about 40% of the population, the highest in the province, Oglaza said. And the long held target of 90% of the 12 and over population receiving at least two doses of vaccine was finally reached on Wednesday.

The vaccine campaign for children between 5 and 11 years old, which was proceeding rapidly in late November and early December, has slowed in recent weeks. 54% of that cohort have received one dose of vaccine, which is also th ehighest rate in the province.

With contact tracing on hold, for now at least, and testing capacity been stretched, Dr. Oglaza said that people who develop symptoms are being asked asked to self isolate, “whether or not they seek testing” and let any close contacts know that they should consider taking the same measures, especially if those contacts also develop symptoms.

He said that family members of people who develop symptoms should be the most careful, as well as people who have been in prolonged direct contact.

“An hour long conversation over a kitchen counter, especially without a mask, is an example of this kind of contact.

He also said that among some of the most vulnerable populations, even people who have received full vaccination and a booster, are at risk of serious illness, or death from Omicron, and should be taking as many precautions as possible, as should people who are in contact with them.

As for those who have not received any vaccine at all, he said that he expects most will contract COVID by the end of January, the expected point at which the current Omicron wave is expected to abate.

“It is reasonable to say that whatever people have been doing thus far to avoid COVID without getting a vaccine, will not be able to prevent infection because of how transmissible this variant is. People can expect to experience illness as a result, if they have no protection at all from a vaccine.”

anyone in the region who has not been vaccinated is likely to contract COVID in the KFL&A region by the end of January.