More deaths than births in Frontenac County - study points to ageing population

Jeff Green | Jun 26, 2014

A detailed population, housing and employment projections study, completed by Watson and Associates for the Frontenac County planning department, indicates there will be limited growth in the County over the next 20 years, and that growth will be centered in South Frontenac with most of the new residents living within commuting distance from the City of Kingston.

Although none of the information in the study is new, and there are some projections going forward that reflect some regional and provincial trends, the study does question some of the data that came from the 2011 census, and provides alternative information.

It also provides a 20-year picture of births and deaths in the County, and during the most recent five-year period for which data was available, 2006-2011, more people are dying than are being born in Frontenac County. The numbers, 1,338 births as compared to 1,402 deaths, reflect a gradual change in demograpics. Between 1991 and 1996 there were 1348 births and 884 deaths; between 1996 and 2001, 1044 births and 651 deaths; and between 2001 and 2006 886 babies were born and 823 people died.

Over that 20-year period, the population increase in Frontenac County was mostly due to increased migration to the county from elsewhere, which was responsible for a net increase in population of almost 5,300 residents over that time.

Not surprisingly given these figures, the number of young people in Frontenac County has been on the wane as the older adult and senior population has jumped. In 1981, 33% of the Frontenac County population was under 19, and that percentage has dropped to 22%. Also, in 1981, 22% of the population was between the age of 20 and 34 and that percentage is down to 12%. The percentages are correspondingly higher for those aged 45 to 54 and 55 to 74, which is now the largest group at 29%.

All of this puts talk of the ageing of the baby boom bump and the ageing Tsunami into context.

Based on demographic and economic trends and population, the Watson report projected slow economic and population growth in Frontenac County over the next 22 years.

Growth is projected to increase at a marginal rate of 0.7% per year over that time, with the bulk of the increase (67%) being generated by growth in the Kingston economy and a resulting increase in the commuter population in South Frontenac.

The total population is projected to reach 33,200 by 20136, up from 27,900 currently. When seasonal residents are added to the mix, the projection is a population of 64,200 by 2036, up from 57,500 currently.

Job growth within the county over that time is also projected to be modest, a net increase of only 800 jobs, from 3,900 currently to 4,700 in 2036, but more and more of those jobs will be home-based jobs in the knowledge economy as opposed to jobs in the retail and tourism sectors.

While the projections in the Watson report are clearly subject to revision as time goes on, Joe Gallivan, manager of sustainability planning for Frontenac, said that the study is a valuable tool in the development of a strategy for population and economic growth in the county, and for the development of services geared towards an ageing population,

One aspect of the study that Gallivan will use in the coming months is chapter 7, which deals with future housing possibilities in the county.

“It is anticipated that a significant share of future housing development will occur within the rural area, similar to historic trends” the study says in section 7-4.

“That is why it is important for us to impress upon the Ministry if Municipal Affairs that contrary to what the provincial policy statement says, orienting all housing development into the built-up areas is not a viable option in Frontenac County,” said Gallivan.

South Frontenac Mayor Gary Davison concurred. “Pushing development into hamlets that don’t have water and sewer systems in place is only going to cause more, not less, of an environmental risk,” he said.

Of more than a dozen hamlets in Frontenac, Sydenham is the only one with a water system in place, and even Sydenham does not have a communal sewage system.